by Mercedes trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin has warned of the unpredictability of the upcoming Azerbaijan GP at the Baku City Circuit. He noted that with the top four cars closely matched in terms of performance, predicting who will qualify best is a challenge given the unusual nature of the circuit.
The 2024 season has seen the emergence of Mercedes and McLaren as serious challengers to Red Bull’s championship lead, alongside Ferrari’s strong recovery from the opening Grands Prix. McLaren has been the most consistent threat, trailing Red Bull by just eight points in the constructors’ championship, while Max Verstappen’s lead over Lando Norris in the drivers’ standings has shrunk to 62 points.
Shovlin confirmed that the nature of the circuit is Mercedes-friendly, but ruled out a clear advantage given the small performance differences with rival cars. Explaining the situation ahead of the race weekend in Baku, he told the media:
“Baku has always been a circuit where it is difficult to predict where you will end up in the order.
“The other problem this year is that on any given circuit there could be at least three, if not four, teams all within a tenth or two of each other. That makes it very difficult to predict where they’ll all end up in qualifying and where the race pace will be.
“We expect McLaren to be fast. Ferrari has also performed well recently and you would never rule out Red Bull.”
What makes Baku unique is a tight, slow sector two that abruptly turns into a long, fast straight. He added:
“It’s a challenge, but Baku is an unusual circuit because you have a very tight, twisty sector two where the speed is very low, and then also a very long straight.
“You need a relatively low wing height, which is not what you normally need in all those slow corners, but on the long straight you have to have that.
“It is also a weekend where many incidents can happen that affect the race. If a driver makes a mistake there, it is very easy to bring in the safety car to solve the problem.”
Shovlin confirmed that Mercedes will approach the remaining eight races with the same approach that has proven successful at circuits such as the Red Bull Ring, Silverstone and Spa-Francorchamps. He said:
“We weren’t happy with our last few weekends, but we’re aiming higher than that.
“We were hoping to start the last part of the season in the same way as we ended it, with some race wins and some strong qualifying. All our energy is going into delivering the best performance and getting back to the weekends where we can be happy with the work we have done and hopefully with some trophies.”
